Thursday, March 24, 2011

This is about what my on road diesel bills are every 3 to 4 days. This is not going to be one of those woe is me the poor farmer has so many challenges blogs. I've never been a fan of that attitude. Anyone in business faces a variety of unknown costs and suprises on an almost daily basis. The challenge of a free market is to navigate these obstacles so you can prosper and continue to grow your business.

My concern with fuel price is it has been a very strong indicator of consumor demand for beef. Any family budget only has so much money for fuel and so much money for protien (ideally beef). As the fuel budget is stretched competeing meats (pork, fish, or god forbid chicken) become alternatives because of their lower cost. I'm a beef producer so I can't believe anyone would actually do this for taste :) Beef prices at the supermarket are going up because of simple supply and demand. Corn is short and high, cattle inventories are at the lowest level since the 1950's, crude oil is high, and our population is growing. As I look towards summer I know that a small shift in demand for  beef could mean large financial losses for me because of the high level of production costs associated with corn and crude oil. This is starting to affect my expansion plans instead of wanting to borrow money to build a new shop I'm thinking save another couple of years. I need to replace a 4 wheeler, but now my thoughts are becoming wait till fall see what happens.

On the flip side if the consuming public decides they are going to look at ways to trim their fuel budget, walk to work, ride a bike, carpooling, etc... they would have more money left over for tasty backyard grilling this summer. Beef prices would stay at profitable levels and the drop in demand for crude would help solve their high fuel prices. But the reality is no one knows what the consumer is going to do.

All this analysis was starting to clog my brain. After watching the calves play in the sun this afternoon I was reminded that while high fuel costs are a concern, in the greater scheme of things they aren't that big of a deal.

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